Barron’s Made in America: The Next Boom

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By: KOPIN TAN Barron’s JANUARY 2013

Barron's Made in America

Photo: Barron’s John Kuczala

Cheap natural gas and increasingly competitive labor costs are bringing factories and jobs back to the U.S. Eight ways to win.

 As the only industrialized superpower not decimated by World War II, the United States once made nearly 40% of the planet’s goods. These days, that number has shrunk to 18%. We make American Girl dolls in China, Levi’s jeans in Mexico, and enough movies in Vancouver to nickname it Hollywood North.

After decades of outsourcing, however, the U.S. is quietly enjoying a manufacturing revival, and companies like Apple (ticker: AAPL), Caterpillar (CAT), Ford Motor (F),General Electric (GE), and Whirlpool (WHR) are making more of their goods on American soil again. It isn’t just U.S. companies that are drawn to our cheap energy, weak dollar, and stagnant wages. Samsung Electronics (005930.Korea) plans a $4 billion semiconductor plant in Texas, Airbus SAS is building a factory in Alabama, and Toyota (TM) wants to export minivans made in Indiana to Asia.
The Rust Belt owes its new shine to many factors, including rising wages and industrial-land costs in Asia. But none is bigger than the U.S. energy boom. Thanks to a head start in extracting oil and gas from shales, North America now produces far more natural gas than any other continent. Unlike oil, gas isn’t easily transported across oceans, and a result is some of the world’s cheapest energy within our reach: Natural gas here costs $3.55 per million British thermal units, versus roughly $12 in Europe and $16 in Japan. Cheap energy not only reduces our trade deficit and our addiction to Middle East oil, it also makes our factories more competitive globally — a boon for a country that had gone from exporting American goods to exporting American jobs.The biggest beneficiaries are energy-guzzling companies like chemical producers and steelmakers, and Barron’s has identified eight stocks that should prosper in our gas-fueled manufacturing upswing. They are Southwestern Energy, LyondellBasell Industries, Nucor, Dover, Calpine, CF Industries, Williams, and Union Pacific. But any glow will also rub off on regional lenders, home builders, and local small businesses. “The U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of natural gas,” declares Nancy Lazar, co-head of the New York research firm International Strategy & Investment. “And Middle America is my favorite emerging market.”

Our energy boom got cracking with fracking, a controversial process in which pressurized fluids are pumped through rock formations, often a mile or more under the ground, to extract oil and gas. Critics condemn fracking, which they contend causes environmental harm, but even they agree that it’s led to an abundance of cheap gas. Over the past six years, U.S. production of petroleum and natural gas has jumped from 15 million barrels of oil-equivalent a day to 20.1 million, a 20-year high. Over the same period, imports have fallen from 14 million barrels a day to below eight million, a 25-year low.

It’s a sign of the times: Graduates from the South Dakota School of Mines & Technology — acceptance rate: 88%; mascot: Grubby the Miner — now command a median starting salary 16% higher than that of Yalies.

By 2020, the U.S. will become the world’s biggest oil producer, says the International Energy Agency. By 2025, North America will be a net energy exporter, predicts ExxonMobil (XOM).

That edge should remain ours for decades. “It isn’t just the huge reserves we have underground,” says Tim Parker, who manages T. Rowe Price’s natural-resource stock portfolios. “No one else has our predictable cocktail of infrastructure already in place, know-how, a relative abundance of water, and a favorable royalty regime that give landowners a stake in the exploration game.” Europe, for instance, is averse to fracking and has little infrastructure; Japan has hardly any shales; and while China has vast reserves, only shales nudging the Yangtze River have enough water for fracking.

Of course, an especially frigid winter could send gas prices soaring, but any such spike should be temporary. Given our expanding reserves and record inventory, commodity strategists expect U.S. natural gas to stay between $3 and $5 per million BTUs for years — well below prices abroad.

CHEAP GAS ISN’T THE ONLY booster in our tank. In the decade since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, that nation has become Earth’s low-cost factory. But wages and benefits there are rising 15% to 20% a year, while they’re stagnant here. Despite Beijing’s efforts to hold it down, the yuan has gained 33% against the dollar since 2005. Industrial land averages $10.22 a square foot across China, but rises to $11.15 in the coastal city of Ningbo and $21 in Shenzhen — compared with $1.30 to $4.65 in Tennessee and North Carolina. “Within five years, the total cost of producing many products will be only about 10% to 15% less in Chinese coastal cities than in parts of the U.S. where factories are likely to be built,” says Hal Sirkin, a senior partner at Boston Consulting Group. Add duties and shipping, and the cost gap shrinks further.

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Mexican Trade War Looms Over Winter Tomatos

U.S. business groups said on Tuesday they were worried about a damaging trade war with Mexico if President Barack Obama’s administration follows through on a preliminary decision to terminate a 16-year-old tomato trade agreement.

“We think the U.S.-Mexico economic relationship is tremendously important,” Patrick Kilbride of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce told reporters on a conference call. “We don’t want to see another trade war ignited.”

Florida tomato growers have pressed the Obama administration since June to terminate a 1996 agreement with Mexico on the grounds it fails to protect them against Mexican tomatoes sold in the United States below the cost of production.

Florida growers historically compete with Mexico for the U.S. winter and early spring tomato market. Terminating the pact would clear the way for Florida growers to file a new anti-dumping case against their Mexican rivals.

Last week, the U.S. Commerce Department stopped short of immediately tearing up the agreement, but took a preliminary position in favor of ending the pact. It promised a final decision “as soon as practicable” and in no more than 270 days.

The decision surprised Mexican officials and tomato producers, who have offered to renegotiate the pact. They argue the agreement has benefited U.S. consumers and brought stability to the North American market.

Bill Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, said business groups were concerned the Obama administration might rush to make a final a decision ahead of the Nov. 6 presidential election, in which Florida is expected to play a decisive role.

U.S. dairy, poultry producers press for Canada market openings

reuters

A dairy farm on the banks of the Columbia River

Canada uses supply controls to help poultry, dairy farmers

* US producers see 2nd chance in Trans-Pacific Partnership

By Doug Palmer

WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) – The United States must fix mistakes it made in the North American Free Trade Agreement by insisting in new trade talks with Canada on unrestricted access to that country’s poultry and dairy market, U.S. agricultural groups said on Monday.

“All we’re asking is that we have an open and free fair trade shot at the border,” Bill Roenigk, senior vice president at the National Chicken Council, said at a hearing conducted by the U.S. Trade Representative’s office on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) pact.

Canada’s Conservative government, sensitive to sentiment in vote-rich Eastern Canada, has long said it will maintain supply-management measures for dairy, poultry and egg farmers. These measures largely entail matching production to domestic demand and levying high tariffs to discourage imports.

However, the government has also said all goods are subject to negotiation, both in talks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership among 11 countries in the Asia-Pacific region and in free-trade discussions with the European Union.

Four-fifths of Canada’s 13,200 dairy farmers live in Ontario and Quebec, populous provinces that are generally critical to election success.

Roenigk said U.S. producers thought NAFTA, which went into force in January 1994, would eliminate tariffs on U.S. poultry exports to Canada and were shocked when Ottawa, as well as a NAFTA dispute settlement panel, took the opposite view.

Now that the United States has a second chance to address Canada’s poultry tariffs, the U.S. industry’s “view on this is the old Irish proverb: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me,” Roenigk said in his prepared remarks.

“The U.S. poultry industry strongly opposes Canada’s participation in the TPP unless Canada expressly commits to removing all border restrictions on poultry imports from the United States,” he said.

Jaime Castaneda, senior vice president at the National Milk Producers Federation, said U.S. dairy producers were also disappointed NAFTA did not open up Canada’s market and were determined not to let that happen again.

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More Trade Actions – Wind Turbine Towers, Washing Machines

More Trade Actions – Wind Turbine Towers, Washing Machines

Dave Johnson  |  July 31, 2012  |  Campaign for America’s Future

The game is to underprice your product until your competitors go out of business (like Solyndra & other solar companies). Then you own the market. This is about a lot more than just jobs. Our government is finally doing something about leveling the playing field!

This week, in separate actions, our Commerce Department imposed “anti-dumping” tariffs on wind turbine towers and washing machines. The wind turbine towers were coming in from China and Vietnam, the washing machines from Mexico and South Korea.

Why Sell Under Cost?

Dumping is when a product is sold for less than it costs to evenmake the product. The idea is that your competitors will go out of business and the manufacturing ecosystem of suppliers, knowledge and infrastructure moves to you, so you’ll come out ahead in the long run.

It takes enormous investment to open up a manufacturing operation because you need the proper facilities, the right local utilities, the tools and machines, the skilled workforce, the suppliers, the local infrastructure, the channels to markets, and all the rest of the ecosystem that supports manufacturing. When that is lost to another country it is very, very difficult to get it back. Especially in a country with a Congress that refuses to understand the need for a national industrial policy.

This is the game that countries like China have been playing with their national industrial policies designed to capture strategic industries like solar and wind energy. By selling lower than cost for several years you gain market share and shed competitors. The suppliers, knowledge base, and jobs move their way. Eventually they build or strengthen an entire ecosystem and it is just too costly for others to try to compete.

At first it is attractive to take advantage of the lower prices, later the jobs, factories, companies and entire industries are gone along with the jobs and economic power they bring. Or, in other words, look around at what has happened to us.

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‘Insourcing’ bill fails to advance in the Senate

 

(Karen Bleier – AFP/Getty Images)

The Senate failed to advance a bill Thursday that would end tax breaks for large companies that relocate jobs overseas and provide tax credits to firms that bring jobs back to the United States.

Senators voted 56 to 42 to proceed to final consideration of the Bring Jobs Home Act, falling short of the 60 votes necessary in order to proceed. The White House expressed strong support for the measure, which is packed with proposals from Senate Democrats facing reelection and eager to demonstrate efforts to shore up the nation’s struggling manufacturing sector.

The bill would eliminate tax deductions that companies may take when moving workers and equipment overseas, but establish a new 20 percent tax deduction for companies that do the reverse.

Republicans objected to the bill in part because Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) blocked GOP amendments to the bill, including a proposal to repeal the 2010 health-care reform act. Senate Republicans this month also attempted to amend a small business tax cut bill with language repealing the health law. Some GOP senators also complained that Democrats bypassed the normal committee process and quickly introduced the bill for election-year political purposes.

Democrats note that roughly 2.4 million American jobs have been transferred overseas in the last decade as global firms outsource more positions to cheaper markets.

Source: Washington Post

See how your Senator voted on the Bring Home Jobs Act:  Senate Roll Call

 

High hopes for jobs and TV’s ‘Made in the USA’

By Hal Weitzman in Chicago Financial Times
Much of Element Electronics’ factory in Canton, a suburb west of Detroit, is empty. But on a single production line, about 45 workers are assembling the first televisions made in the US by an American company in decades.

So far, it is a small operation, but Element’s attempt to bring TV manufacturing back from Asia to the heart of America’s rust belt is a powerful example of reshoring, the trend of jobs once outsourced to low-cost emerging economies being brought back to the US.

Reshoring is causing great excitement in the US. Companies such as General Electric and Caterpillar have been touted as high-profile examples of the trend. Since 2009 GE has announced plans to create 11,000 manufacturing jobs.

In an election year, reshoring has also become a potent political symbol, a counterweight to those who say the US is in decline or that current economic policies are not working.

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U.S. Trade Ambassador: L.A. Apparel and Textile Companies Key to Boosting Exports

The Obama administration wants the Los Angeles apparel and textile industry to help the country double its exports by the end of 2014. Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Demetrios Marantis made his first trip to Los Angeles as a member of the Obama administration, visiting key apparel and textile factories on April 2 and then holding a round table with about 30 apparel and textile executives to urge them to take advantage of the various free-trade agreements negotiated by the U.S. government.

“The whole point of my being here is to talk to the industry about how to take advantage of the ‘Made in USA’ label and how do we use our trade agreements to help the industry export,” said Marantis, who was named Deputy U.S. Trade Representative in 2009. He has been active in negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a regional trade agreement between the United States and eight other countries—Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, Peru and Singapore.

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What Does the Future Hold for American Manufacturing?

The state of US manufacturing is likely to become a major campaign issue - Getty Images

The state of US manufacturing is likely to become a major campaign issue - Getty Images

Written by: BBC North America editor, Mark Mardell 

Drew Greenblatt is an enthusiast: proud of his company, Marlin Steel, and proud of the factory floor packed with state-of-the-art equipment.

I watch, fascinated, as a little white robot squeezes out a wire, putting kinks and bends in it as it emerges.

Then it hands it over to a slightly larger yellow robot, which holds it steady for a twist in the end before turning it over for another twist at the other end.

Oddly, I find this cutting-edge equipment rather cute and cartoonish.

The question is whether this endearing duo are merely the remnants of America’s industrial past or the sort of equipment that will make the USA world-beaters once again.

The factory floor space at Marlin Steel is being doubled and there is no doubt the company is doing well, prospering even, during the bad years. Read more of this post

FDA Says Brazil’s Orange Juice Is Safe, But Still Illegal

 

Antonio Scorza/AFP/Getty Images Oranges for sale at a market in Rio de Janeiro.

Antonio Scorza/AFP/Getty Images Oranges for sale at a market in Rio de Janeiro.

NPR      by DAN CHARLES  February 22, 2012

If you happen to notice sometime later this year that you’re suddenly paying a lot more for orange juice, you can blame America’s food safety authorities. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration, after several weeks of deliberation, has blocked imports of frozen, concentrated orange juice from Brazil, probably for the next 18 months or so, even though the agency says the juice is perfectly safe.

The FDA’s explanation is that its hands are legally tied. Its tests show that practically all concentrated juice from Brazil currently contains traces of the fungicide carbendazim, first detected in December by Coca-Cola, maker of Minute Maid juices. The amounts are small — so small that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says no consumers should be concerned.

The problem is, carbendazim has not been used on oranges in the U.S. in recent years, and the legal permission to use it on that crop has lapsed. As a result, there’s not a legal “tolerance” for residues of this pesticide in orange products. Read more of this post

How to Save U.S. Manufacturing Jobs

By Howard Wial @CNNMoney February 23, 2012: 5:34 AM ET

Howard Wial is a fellow for the Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program.

At first glance, manufacturing jobs would appear to be a dying breed.

The United States lost 6 million manufacturing jobs between early 2001 and late 2009. And despite small gains during the last two years, the trend in manufacturing employment for the last 30 years has been downward.

That has led some to argue that long-term job loss in the industry is inevitable. But our research shows otherwise.

There are two common versions of the “inevitability” argument. One holds that U.S. manufacturing wages are too high to be internationally competitive. The other maintains that manufacturing job losses are the result of productivity growth. Both arguments are wrong. Read more of this post

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